After a year of many unusual events hit oil prices—including the collapse of the 42-year long regime of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya—traders are not ruling out anything and have added Russia to their risk lists. Last summer a cut in exports from Russia sent oil and gas prices soaring in Mongolia. In response, Mongolia has decided to build up two-month reserves, in addition to a 15 day emergency reserve.

Russia is the world’s second largest oil producer and recent demonstrations in Moscow have spooked oil investors and traders. On Saturday, tens of thousands demanded a rerun of elections, Russia’s largest opposition demonstration since Boris Yeltsin took on the Supreme Soviet in 1993. Although political unrest in Russia disrupting oil production may seem unlikely, war in Libya and turmoil throughout the Middle East was almost unthinkable a year ago.

The turmoil in Moscow sparks two potential risks for the crude oil market. If protests spread and degenerate into strikes, oil production could be affected. On the other hand—and much more likely—the government is likely to respond to the protest with economic stimuli that will boost domestic oil demand, curtailing the exportable surplus. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that Russian oil output hit a post-Soviet high of 10.7 million barrels a day in October. At the same time, however, oil demand is also rising strongly, hitting nearly 3.5 million barrels a day this year; up 5 percent from 2010.

The surge in oil consumption in Russia this year has already hit oil markets. Urals has traded above Brent for seven weeks, the longest period for this record. Lower fuel oil and diesel exports from Russia have also helped to push up the price of both in the global market. Russia has been a depressing force for oil prices since the early 2000s as the country boosted production to 10 million barrels a day from a low of 6 million barrels a day in 1996 after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Next year, for the first time in a decade, it could be a bullish force.