| 2012 Outlook: Hurdles and goals |
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| Thursday, 12 January 2012 10:15 |
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Source: Frontier Securities The rise of global and domestic risks has brought Mongolia to as phase reminiscent of pre-crisis years, reported Dale Choi, chief market strategist of Frontier Securities. Choi released a list of the 12 items that will likely have an impact on the economy in the coming year for a 2012 Outlook for Mongolia Report. Number one on the list was the expectation that expansion to the Mongolian economy would continue if there are favorable commodity prices. He forecasted growth between 15.1 percent and 16.6 percent if 2012 passes without major falls in commodity prices. However, the economy may face double digit inflation and an exchange rate dependent on both external and internal influences.
For the Oyu Tolgoi project, the events to follow in 2012 will be whether or not Rio Tinto decides to buy up the remaining shares of Ivanhoe Mines for a takeover, and how soon. As for Tavan Tolgoi, the site needs infrastructure, such as roads and railways, but financing will be largely dependent on the initial public offering (IPO). In addition to delays and confusions over the nature of the Erdenes-Tavan Tolgoi (ETT) IPO, falls in commodity prices may result in a lukewarm reception. As for commodities themselves, Choi predicted record production for coal production, softening prices for iron ore products.
The reception for the euro-denominated Mongolian sovereign bonds would serve as a bench mark for investor appetite towards investment in Mongolia. Choi recommended that the Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE) would benefit from positioning itself as a “preferred location for exploration company listings.” Market participants can also expect gradual growth in equity, he added.
Finally is the effect from the Democratic Party's exit from the coalition government and upcoming 2012 parliamentary elections. The question is how these factors will play out in the public sector to influence the business atmosphere, and how investors will react.
“...Proactive, prudent and risk-averse investment management is now needed more than ever...” said Choi. “Mongolia's future road is certainly not clear of bumps, yet ripe with rewards as never before.
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