- "Mongolian Mining" report by Global Business Reports (GBR), Engineering & Mining journal (E&MJ), July/August 2010.
- World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, July 2010
- Click here to view the "Tavan Tolgoi Draft Investment Agreement" in English.
- Politbarometer - Sant Maral Foundation, April, 2010 (Full Report, PDF format, 533KB)
- Mongolia Monthly Economic Update - World Bank, March, 2010 (Full Report, PDF format, 777KB)
Mongolia’s trade deficit has stabilized in recent months on a 12-month rolling basis. The sustained recovery of Mongolia’s exports has been supported by upward momentum in metal prices and increasing imports from Mongolia to China, its largest trading partner.
March, 2010 - In the first quarter of 2010, the trend improvement in the fiscal deficit stalled as the positive impact of improving revenues was offset by expanding expenditures. If expenditures were to continue to rise in step with mining-related revenues, Mongolia risks returning to the boom-and-bust cycle of the pre-crisis years. However, fiscal consolidation is necessary, given the difficult financing conditions projected for the next few years. In particular, 2011 will be a difficult year for the budget as the Windfall Profits Tax will have been abolished.
A related challenge is how to manage public investment expenditures within the current fiscal space while helping to meet Mongolia’s infrastructure challenge. The current public investment planning and execution process suffers from a number of weaknesses which are examined in Box 1 through the lens of investment in the road sector. Wages and salaries are another major expenditure item within the budget and face upward pressures. Box 2 presents preliminary details of the latest survey in determining the level of public sector wage increases. At senior levels, the total cash compensation in the civil service is approximately 60 to 70 percent relative to bench-marked private sector jobs. However, pay and benefit levels are not unattractive when benefits and job security are factored in. And low level civil service jobs had similar or higher levels of total cash compensation compared to private jobs.
Mongolia’s trade deficit has stabilized in recent months on a 12-month rolling basis. The sustained recovery of Mongolia’s exports has been supported by upward momentum in metal prices and increasing imports from Mongolia to China, its largest trading partner. The exchange rate against the US dollar has been stable, while foreign exchange reserves are close to record levels.
The economic recovery and the prospects of strong growth in 2010 have contributed to recent consumer prices rises. While rising price pressures may be expected during recovery, the challenge going forward is to ensure that this does not develop into the overheating seen during previous booms.
In the banking sector, total lending growth remains muted as nominal lending and deposit rates remain high. On an aggregate level the commercial banks realized a profit of MNT 2.8 billion in March after reaching a loss of MNT 143.4 billion through 2009. The ratio of non-performing loans to total loans stabilized in March but is still at 22 percent while principal in arrears is increasing. A bank restructuring strategy was recently drafted by the Bank of Mongolia, reflecting lessons from international experience (including those of the Turkish banking crisis of 2000/2001, as detailed in Box 3). Timely endorsement of the plan by Parliament is crucial so as to align Mongolia with international best practices that limit the potential economic and fiscal cost associated with any government support and restructuring.
In the real sector, the severe impact from the dzud, which marked a record disaster affecting over 80 percent of Mongolia’s territory, will be felt across major sectors, including the banking sector. Up until now, herder loans have been relatively well performing (Box 4) but, with the number of livestock losses increasing to over 7 million (16 percent of total herd), upward pressure on non-performing loans is likely to increase.
Currently, the Mongolian Parliament is discussing the enactment of a number of important reforms including the Fiscal Stability Law and an Integrated Budget Law which will put in place a fiscal framework for managing mining revenues as well as a commitment to prudent fiscal policy. Such important moves to improve the policy framework in key areas will help Mongolia to avoid boom-and-bust cycles and promote sustainable growth into the future.
- Regional Economic Outlook - Asia, Pacific, International Monetary Fund, April 2010
- Survey of Mining Companies 2008/2009, Fraser Institute Annual
- Asian Development Outlook 2010: Macroeconomic Management Beyond the Crisis, by Asian Development Bank, April 2010
- Mongolia Monthly Economic Update, World Bank, February 2010
- SouthGobi Energy Resources Announces 2009 Financial Results and Review of Operations, Marketwire, March 22, 2010
- 2010 Mongolia Investment Climate Statement, U.S. Embassy in Ulaanbaatar, February 2010
- Mongolia Monthly Economic Update, World Bank, January 2010
- Monthly Newsletter OT LLC’s Community Relations and Sustainable Development department, February 2010
- Mongolia Monthly Economic Update, World Bank, December 2009
- Oyu Tolgoi Monthly Update, November 2009
- Mongolian Nature and Environment Legislative Scorecard by The Asia Foundation November 27, 2009
- Politbarometer #4 (37) by Sant Maral Foundation. Released on October 2009
- Mongolia Monthly Economic Update - September, 2009 by the World Bank
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Mongolia’s position fell to 60, with no significant reforms recorded. However, the Government of Mongolia has taken steps to improve the business environment, which could lead to higher rankings in 2011. According to a recent review by the World Bank, Mongolia has the potential to be a top performer in starting a business, protecting investors, and registering property.
- Mongolia Monthly Economic Update by The World Bank. Released on July 2009.
- An update on recent economic and social developments and policies in Mongolia.
- Private Sector Assessment for Mongolia by Asia Development Bank. Released on April 2009.
- SMF Politbarometer - April, 2009
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The “Sant Maral” foundation presents the results of the April 2009 survey. The representative sample of 1240 respondents from the capital Ulan Bator and Hovd, Orhon, Dornod, Arhangay, Dornogovi aymaks (split proportionally by 4 regional divisions and Ulan Bator) was collected from April 15 to April 26, 2009. Tabulations are band by Urban, Countryside and Nationwide areas when necessary.
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The survey is sponsored by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation of Germany.
- Asia Development Outlook 2009 - East Asia by ADB.
- Competitive Position of Mongolia's Mineral Sector Fiscal System: the Case of a Model Copper Mine (2008) by James. M. Otto.
- SMF Politbarometer October 2008
- Sant Maral Foundation has compiled this political survey twice a year for more than 10 years.
- Mongolia Quarterly Report by World Bank, October 2008.
- Behre Dolbear 2009 Mining Rankings
- IMF Report
- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has made a survey on the current situation and prospectives of Mongolia's economy. Click on the link below to view the report in Mongolian. The english version will be posted on the BCM website soon.
- NSOM Monthly Bulletin, June 2008
- Mongolia Quarterly Report-June 2008 by the World Bank
- Mongolia: 2008 Consultation Staff Report.pdf
- Sant Maral Foundation's Politbarometer, May 2008
- BCM RMI OPED ZEB ENG.pdf Op-Ed article on 'Responsible Mining' by MP Z. Enkhbold in the UB Post on May 1, 2008
- World Bank East Asia Update MONGOLIA.pdf by the World Bank. April 2008.
- MNMA Statement March 14 2008 ENG.pdf
- BCM IMF Press Release March 11 2008.pdf
- Mongolia Quarterly Report-WB Feb 2008.pdf
- Fraser Institute Survey of Mining Companies2007-2008.pdf
- BCM HERITAGE FOUNDATION Mongolia index.pdf
- PM Bayar speech--13Dec07.pdf
- MPRP Action Plan.pdf
- Remarks by President Bush and President Enkhbayar.pdf
- BCM IMF Fiscal Regime Mining Sector Eng.pdf
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Mongolia Reports